CEG vs. VST: AI Power Bets Diverge on AI Demand Boom

Energy producers Constellation Energy ($CEG+WL) and Vistra ($VST+WL) are positioning themselves to capitalize on the surge in electricity demand driven by the AI sector's expansion. While both companies benefit from this trend, their operational strategies and stock performance show significant divergence.

Constellation Energy, with its expansive 55 GW capacity across diverse energy sources including nuclear, natural gas, and renewables, directly serves a significant portion of the Fortune 100. The company's nuclear fleet, totaling 22 GW, is a key earnings driver and serves major hyperscalers. Constellation's stock has seen a 137% rally over the past three years. For 2026, Constellation anticipates adjusted operating earnings to grow between 8% and 22%-33%, projecting earnings per share between $11.50 and $12.50.

Vistra, on the other hand, operates a substantial natural gas fleet (62% of capacity) and a smaller nuclear component (15%). Vistra has experienced more aggressive stock appreciation, soaring 330% over the same three-year period. Analysts forecast Vistra's adjusted earnings to rise 29% in 2026 and 10% in 2027. Vistra's gross margin stands at 17.37% with a dividend yield of 0.64%. Constellation's gross margin is reported at 20.18%, also with a dividend yield of 0.64%.