Clarity Act Backing Grows; Senate Vote Odds Rise

Goldman Sachs has joined Wall Street in backing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a significant development for the cryptocurrency industry. Prediction markets suggest an 87% probability of the Senate voting on the legislation before October 1, 2027, with a procedural vote scheduled for September 15.

Despite this growing support, the act faces potential roadblocks, particularly concerning ethics provisions that lawmakers may demand to prevent officials from profiting from crypto ventures. Current odds for passage before year-end 2027 remain low, with Kalshi data showing an 8% chance before October 1, 16% before November 1, 18% before December 1, and 23% before January 1. Odds for passage rise to 60% by July 2027, though this is subject to change based on election outcomes.

In parallel, regulatory bodies such as the SEC and CFTC are considering new rules if the Clarity Act stalls. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) is open to national bank charters for crypto firms, aligning with White House efforts to establish the U.S. as a crypto capital.

## Impact on Crypto Sector ### Winners, Losers & Uncertainty The cryptocurrency sector faces continued uncertainty regarding legislative clarity. Companies like Coinbase Global ($COIN+WL) and Circle Internet Group ($CRL+WL) are seen as potentially able to grow regardless of the Clarity Act's passage due to their established relationships and evolving business models. Ripple ($XRP+WL), which partnered with BlackRock ($BLK+WL) on tokenization, also represents an entity within the evolving digital asset landscape.

### Risk Watch The primary risk remains political alignment and the inclusion of stringent ethics provisions. The timeline for potential passage is extended, with significant probability shifts anticipated around mid-term elections and further out to mid-2027.