Europe's Far Right: Putin's Ally?

## Catalyst Analysis: European Far-Right Gains

The ascendance of far-right political parties in Europe, notably Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), presents a complex geopolitical landscape. The AfD, projected to potentially lead at the federal level by 2029, advocates for policies such as reducing military aid to Ukraine and lifting EU sanctions, positions that align with the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin. This trend, particularly its strength in former East Germany, raises concerns about deepening divisions within the European Union regarding its approach to Russia and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

## Impact on International Relations

The success of parties like the AfD, which is also critical of renewable energy transition and LGBTQ+ rights, could influence broader EU policy debates. If mainstream parties fail to counter the populist surge, the AfD's growing parliamentary presence might challenge established diplomatic and security alliances, especially concerning Russia. The party's potential to form coalitions with other splinter groups could further amplify its policy objectives.

### Winners, Losers & Uncertainty

**Potential Beneficiaries:** Entities or nations that benefit from a fractured European stance on sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, or those seeking closer ties with Russia.

**Potential Losers:** The Ukrainian government and its allies seeking sustained support, and European institutions striving for unified policy on foreign relations and security.

**Uncertainty:** The long-term impact on EU cohesion, transatlantic relations, and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain as these political shifts unfold.

### Risk Watch — legal/timeline

The AfD is slated to contest federal elections in 2029, with current polling suggesting significant gains. Provincial elections in Thuringia in 2024 already saw the party perform strongly. The potential for a coalition government led by the far-right in Germany represents a key development to monitor, with Saxony-Anhalt noted as a potential testing ground for such arrangements.