Brent Crude Holds Above $100 as War Risks Outweigh Stock Releases

### Money Play Energy markets face ongoing volatility as elevated war risks and alternative routing costs keep Brent crude above $100 per barrel despite G7 emergency stock releases.

## Catalyst Analysis: Persistent War Risk Premiums Brent crude oil prices have held above $100 per barrel for most of the past month, up from $60 before the war, even as tanker-tracking services indicate that crude flows from the Strait of Hormuz have recovered or exceeded pre-war levels. According to SEB Bank analysis cited in market reports, the physical price for North Sea Oseberg and Fortis crudes is running near $140 a barrel. High freight rates, shipping attacks, and less efficient alternative routes by Gulf producers have inflated delivery costs.

## Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch

24.25 · R1 ## Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch 20.55 · last ## Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch 19.33 · S1 ## Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch 18.96 · S2 ## Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch 14.71.

Global inventories have drawn down significantly to absorb earlier disruptions, leaving little cushion against potential escalations surrounding the U.S. midterm elections in November. The G7 announced a release of 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel stocks on Friday, but analysts note uncertainty over whether these barrels represent genuinely new supply or leftover pledges from prior IEA commitments. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen noted that a sustained move lower in Brent requires broader operational normalisation, including improved crude supply, recovering product exports, and reduced political and financial risks to shipping.

## Impact on Energy Inventories and Refiners Refiners are maintaining high processing rates to capture record refining margins on diesel, which remains the most stressed barrel of oil globally. With Russian diesel shipments halted due to export bans and China curbing overseas fuel flows to protect domestic supply, operational bottlenecks and geopolitical unknowns continue to underpin the market ahead of winter peak demand.