Citi Oil Outlook: $60 Forecast Meets $112 Brent as Freight Soars

### Money Play Energy & climate policy: Lease, export, OPEC, and subsidy shifts move energy equities fast. Watch broader sector allocations as transport frictions elevate delivered fuel costs across global supply chains.

## Catalyst Analysis: Shipping Frictions Override Volume Recovery Crude export volumes from the Persian Gulf have climbed back to over 81% of prewar levels, excluding Iran under blockade, aided by increased Saudi shipments. However, Citi notes that this is a recovery in volume rather than logistical efficiency. More than 1 million barrels per day of Gulf crude were transferred between vessels in September, representing roughly 7.5% of regional exports.

At the same time, freight rates for very large crude carriers traveling from the Gulf to China recently approached $250 per metric ton—roughly $35 per barrel—more than 20 times the average of the previous decade. These soaring logistics expenses keep delivered supplies expensive, challenging earlier bearish projections.

## Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch

Key levels for $BAC+WL (educational): R2 $56.53 · R1 $54.93 · last $54.58 · S1 $54.39 · S2 $53.41.

Brent December futures traded at $111.70 on Thursday, up $2.88, or 2.65%, after touching $112.68 earlier in the session. Having previously anticipated Brent dropping toward $60–$65 by year-end as Hormuz shipping normalized, analysts emphasize that persistent bottlenecks and Strait of Hormuz risks leave upside volatility intact.

## Impact on Energy Logistics and Global Trade With tanker constraints pushing transit expenses to historic highs, buyers face inflated delivered crude prices despite steady regional export volumes. The divergence between headline barrel counts and actual shipping costs remains a core risk factor for downstream consumers and commodity markets.