Gasoline Prices Stay High Amid Supply Constraints

Elevated crack spreads and crude oil prices are contributing to higher gasoline prices at the pump, as U.S. inventories for both gasoline and distillates remain below historical averages. The gasoline crack spread in New York Harbor has averaged approximately $1 per gallon higher than in 2025, a key indicator of refining profitability. These elevated spreads are largely due to disruptions in global refining activities and a subsequent tightening of worldwide gasoline supplies.

### Money Play

Gasoline crack spreads reflect refinery profitability and are influenced by crude oil prices and refined product demand. Investors monitoring the energy sector may wish to watch for shifts in crude oil prices and global refining capacity, which can impact gasoline futures and related energy equities. The EIA data highlights persistent supply constraints, suggesting that price volatility could continue.

## Catalyst Analysis: Tight Supply and Elevated Crack Spreads

Refinery margins, measured by crack spreads, have widened significantly, averaging about $1 per gallon higher in New York Harbor compared to 2025. This increase is directly linked to global supply shortages. Disruptions in refining operations in regions such as Russia, China, and the Middle East have reduced the availability of gasoline and other refined products, leading to higher wholesale prices.

## Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch

Key levels for $XLF+WL (educational): R2 $58.31 · R1 $58.20 · last $58.10 · S1 $58.06 · S2 $57.80.

## Impact on Energy Sector

The tight supply situation impacts the broader energy sector. U.S. distillate inventories are 14% below the five-year average, while gasoline inventories are 6% below average. Refiners are prioritizing the production of higher-margin distillates and jet fuel, potentially further constraining gasoline availability. Retail prices reflect these pressures, with regional variations, as seen in the Labor Day weekend prices where West Coast gasoline averaged $5.21 per gallon.