Oil Prices Rise as U.S. Keeps Iran Sanctions Firm

### Money Play Energy and climate policy, including export and subsidy shifts, move global commodities and equities rapidly. As geopolitical risk premiums remain embedded in crude benchmarks, traders continue to monitor supply bottlenecks.

## Catalyst Analysis: What Changed Crude oil prices reversed course after a brief midweek dip following reports that President Trump has no intention of easing sanction pressure on Iran. The policy stance keeps export restrictions locked on one of OPEC’s major producers, preserving a geopolitical risk premium across international markets.

## Impact on Energy Markets and Supplies Data from Kpler indicates that Hormuz Strait flows reached 13.2 million barrels daily—representing 77% of pre-war levels—while UBS analysts note that underlying market undersupply persists due to lingering vessel safety risks. Brent crude traded at $103.13 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate sat at $89.53, both tracking toward monthly gains of roughly $10 and $3 per barrel, respectively.

### Winners, Uncertainties & Supply Realities - **Winners:** Upstream producers benefiting from elevated crude benchmarks and persistent geopolitical risk pricing. - **Uncertainties:** The sustainability of Persian Gulf export recoveries and the potential for sudden supply disruptions.

### Risk Watch — Geopolitical & Flow Volatility Traders and industry participants continue to watch Strait of Hormuz vessel transit volumes and official U.S. sanctions rhetoric for signs of escalation or sudden policy shifts that could trigger another price rally.