OPEC+ to Maintain Oil Output Amid Iran War Supply Disruptions

OPEC+ is anticipated to maintain its current oil production policy for October, according to Reuters, citing three sources close to the matter. The group's core members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are scheduled to convene on Sunday.

This decision comes as physical supply concerns, driven by renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and attacks on tankers, are pushing Brent crude prices toward $94 per barrel. These geopolitical events, alongside disruptions from the war in Ukraine, have significantly impacted the availability of oil on the market, with actual production lagging behind higher quotas.

The geopolitical tensions have diminished OPEC+'s ability to influence global prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere reduce the impact of production decisions. While the group has further supply cuts in place through 2026, attention is shifting toward production baselines for 2027, which will determine future individual country quotas.