US Midterms: Iran Conflict Adds Political Risk Before Vote

## Catalyst Analysis: Iran Conflict Intensifies Ahead of US Midterms

The US midterm elections on November 3 could prove a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict with Iran, as senior advisers to President Donald Trump seek to prevent a significant escalation before the vote. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both houses of Congress, making the election outcome crucial.

Rising fuel prices and public opposition to the conflict in the U.S. are becoming political liabilities for the administration. A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that 63 percent of Americans oppose the war, with Trump's approval rating falling to 33 percent since hostilities began. Vice President JD Vance has sought to downplay the situation, stating there is "no active shooting right now" and that it "wouldn’t call it a war."

Despite efforts to de-escalate before the elections, U.S. forces have continued to strike Iran, and American leaders maintain that further military action remains an option. Vance indicated that "everything that could happen is on the table," encompassing economic, military, diplomatic, and covert pressure.

## Impact on US Policy & Geopolitics

### Winners, Losers & Uncertainty

The administration's strategy appears focused on economic pressure, including sanctions on entities facilitating oil revenues for Iran and threatening secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Tehran. A naval blockade of Iranian ports also continues.

However, the potential for Iran to respond militarily poses a risk of wider regional conflict. The coming two months represent a critical period for Washington to manage escalation while increasing economic pressure, with Iran's own strategic calculations potentially forcing an unwanted U.S. response.

### Risk Watch — legal/timeline

The conflict, which began with US and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, faces increasing scrutiny as the midterm elections approach on November 3. The administration's management of the conflict, particularly concerning fuel prices and public sentiment, will be closely watched for its impact on election outcomes.