Inflation Data, Fed Meeting Outlook Drive Market Rebound

U.S. equities closed higher on Friday, reversing a four-day downturn, as market participants evaluated recent inflation reports and anticipated the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1% for the session.

August's Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) increased 0.4% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis and rose 3.4% year-over-year, aligning with consensus forecasts. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy, also saw a sequential increase of 0.3%. Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a 0.4% monthly expansion, pushing the annual rate to 5.4%, exceeding the 5.3% expectation.

The prospect of continued monetary tightening was reflected in the bond market, with the benchmark 2-year Treasury yield climbing past 4.6%, reaching levels not seen since July 2024. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting now stands at approximately 90%.

Technology and semiconductor stocks generally saw gains, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX+WL) rising 2% and the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) up 1.2%. Shares of Microsoft ($MSFT+WL), Apple ($AAPL+WL), and Tesla ($TSLA+WL) were also in focus.

### Story Arc / How We Got Here This week's market dynamics, influenced by inflation data and Federal Reserve expectations, build on prior trends. Earlier this month, concentrated growth exchange-traded funds like SCHG underperformed broader market benchmarks such as $SPY+WL and $QQQ+WL, partly due to their composition and capped exposure to specific high-growth companies like Palantir. Today's focus on broader market indices and the semiconductor sector highlights a shift in investor attention toward monetary policy implications following recent economic data. Prior coverage discussed the performance of SCHG ETF relative to $SPY+WL and $QQQ+WL on 2026-09-04, available at /explore/schg-etf-trails-spy-qqq-as-growth-focus-narrows.

## Catalyst Analysis: Inflation Data and Fed Meeting Outlook Friday's market rebound was primarily driven by the latest inflation figures, which, despite indicating persistent price pressures, were largely in line with or slightly above expectations. This allowed for some relief after a week of declines. The elevated probability of a September rate hike, now at nearly 90%, suggests market participants are pricing in further tightening from the Federal Reserve. This outlook reinforces the central bank's commitment to tackling inflation, potentially impacting future corporate earnings and growth valuations.

## $MSFT+WL Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch

## $AAPL+WL Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch

## Impact on Related Tickers Semiconductor stocks, represented by $SOXX+WL, saw gains. Intel ($INTC+WL) was mentioned as contributing to the sector's rise. $DELL+WL and $EL+WL were also in focus, with Dell experiencing gains following Oracle's strong results and Estée Lauder securing a procedural victory in an intellectual property dispute against Walmart ($WMT+WL). Tesla ($TSLA+WL) was noted in the context of weakness within the broader technology ETF.

### Money Play * If inflation data continues to show persistence, watch fixed-income vehicles like the 2-year Treasury, as yields may remain elevated, impacting equity valuations. * Given the high probability of a September rate hike, consider how a higher interest rate environment might affect growth-oriented technology stocks like Microsoft ($MSFT+WL), Apple ($AAPL+WL), and Tesla ($TSLA+WL). * For exposure to the semiconductor sector, monitor the iShares Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX+WL) and individual names like Intel ($INTC+WL) for potential sustained momentum. * Keep an eye on Dell ($DELL+WL) for further developments related to data center infrastructure demand, which could be a driver for its performance.

### Session Tape * DIA: +0.97% * SPY: +0.85% * QQQ: +0.87% * ORCL: +1.74% * HIMS: +0.26% * SLS: +14.42% * BNB: +2.37% * OKLO: +9.18% * MLTX: +5.08% * TTD: +2.65% * SMR: +15.67% * XPEV: +1.93% * DJT: +1.37% * $SOXX+WL: +2% (tracking gains in Advanced Micro Devices and Intel) * Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT): +1.2% (tracking weakness in $META+WL, $AAPL+WL, and $TSLA+WL)

All session tape figures reflect Friday's regular trading hours.