SpaceX vs Anthropic IPO: Valuation and AI Growth Debated

## Session Tape — Weekend Perspective 71.

## Catalyst Analysis: The Post-SpaceX IPO Landscape Three months after Space Exploration Technologies went public on the Nasdaq on June 12—opening near $150 and raising a record $86.2 billion after an overallotment was exercised—market attention has shifted toward Anthropic's potential public debut. SpaceX eclipsed Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of roughly $26 billion, closing its first day with a market capitalization around $2.1 trillion and implying a 112 times price-to-sales ratio based on 2025 revenue.

However, equity analysts note that SpaceX sold only about 4% of the company during its listing. This structure meant investors paid a premium for a hybrid model combining a rocket business, a broadband operation, and an unproven artificial intelligence initiative. Similarly, Anthropic—valued at $61.5 billion in early 2025 before climbing to $183 billion by September—presents a high-valuation, cash-burning AI growth profile that forces a distinct set of valuation questions for portfolio managers.

## Impact on Broad Tech Valuations The debate over mega-round listings highlights the tension between private-market growth trajectories and public-market liquidity requirements. While traditional software and hardware firms trade on earnings visibility, generational AI startups command multiples that stretch historical price-to-sales parameters, influencing sentiment across growth-oriented equities.