Brent Crude Surges Past $95 Amid Iran Tensions, Tight Supply

**Implied Volatility / Movement:** Elevated geopolitical tensions are contributing to upward pressure on crude oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $91.53 per barrel, while Brent crude neared $96, reaching $95.55. This surge is largely attributed to the escalating conflict between Iran and the United States, including exchanged missile strikes and threats against Iranian infrastructure. U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated that Washington will not engage in peace talks with Iran until its attacks on shipping cease, adding to upward price pressure. Analysts note that while elevated inventories previously absorbed supply shocks, current global inventories are diminishing, posing a challenge to market balance. Despite some indications of easing supply constraints in certain crude grades, fuel supplies remain uncomfortably tight. The sustainability of the current rally may depend on the continued smooth flow of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.