Middle East Oil Exports Rebound to 12.8M Barrels Daily

Middle East crude oil exports rebounded to 12.8 million barrels daily this month, according to preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters, reflecting pipeline routing adjustments and shifting maritime traffic patterns through the Strait of Hormuz.

### Money Play Energy & climate policy shifts across global export channels continue to influence supply-side pricing dynamics for crude markets.

## Catalyst Analysis: Export Flows and Strait Traffic The export recovery was led by Saudi Arabia, which shifted crude flows from western terminals to the east for tanker loading in the Gulf of Oman via ship-to-ship transfer. Kpler data indicates Saudi exports reached a daily rate of 5.4 million barrels this month, with Ras Tanura port flowing at 3.6 million barrels daily—levels comparable to the 2025 daily average. Kpler commodity research director Matt Smith noted that the Mideast Gulf ramp-up stems from a pipeline outage while signaling increased confidence in utilizing the Strait of Hormuz amid rising traffic.

## Technical Analysis & Key Risk Watch

Key levels for $ACGL+WL (educational): R2 $97.26 · R1 $96.11 · last $96.09 · S1 $95.82 · S2 $94.65.

Broader regional transit metrics remain depressed compared to historical baselines. While broader Gulf producers reported a combined daily total of 13.2 million barrels last Wednesday, overall flows sit below the pre-conflict average of 17 million barrels daily. Concurrently, official tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz dipped below 10 vessels last week against a 10-day moving average of 18, though multiple vessels continue operating in dark mode to bypass detection.

## Impact on Sector Risk Geopolitical risks persist as regional reporting highlights security incidents near key maritime corridors. Market participants are monitoring transit security and dark-vessel tracking data as a gauge for potential supply disruptions or risk premiums in global energy channels.