Oil Climbs on Supply Fears as Rate Hikes Loom Globally

### Money Play Investors are closely watching the energy sector due to escalating geopolitical tensions impacting oil supply. ### Executive Thesis Rising oil prices, driven by supply disruptions, pose a significant risk to global inflation and may pressure central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to consider further interest rate increases. Market participants are adjusting positions in anticipation of tighter monetary policy and potential commodity price volatility. ### The Print Brent crude futures rose 3.1% to $107.84 a barrel, marking an almost 9% gain last week. U.S. crude futures increased by 2.8% to $102.85 a barrel. In commodity markets, gold slipped 0.3% to $4,336 an ounce. ### Market Reaction On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures declined 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures fell 1.0%. Asian markets experienced a slide, with Nikkei futures down 2%. ### What It Means for Policy & Positioning An elevated U.S. consumer price report has led markets to price in an 86% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week and another by December, its first since mid-2023. The Bank of Japan is also expected to consider a rate increase, with markets pricing in a 76% chance of a 0.25% hike to 1.25%. ### Next Calendar Watch Markets anticipate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, September 13, 2026, and the Bank of Japan's decision on Friday. The Bank of England is expected to announce its rate decision on Thursday.