Trump Jones Act Waiver Unlikely to Impact Gas Prices

### Money Play - U.S. investors monitoring energy policy may watch $XOM+WL and $CVX+WL for potential shifts related to energy market dynamics.

## Catalyst Analysis: Trump Considers Jones Act Waiver President Donald Trump is contemplating a renewed suspension of the Jones Act, a federal law requiring U.S.-built, U.S.-owned, and U.S.-crewed ships for domestic cargo transport. This move is aimed at potentially lowering gasoline prices, which have surpassed $4 per gallon and could become a political liability for Republicans.

## Impact on U.S. Energy Consumers and Companies Previous waivers of the Jones Act, implemented after the Iran conflict, showed that only approximately 95% of waiver voyages were handled by foreign-flagged vessels, and the overall impact on gasoline prices was marginal. Shipping costs constitute a small portion of the final price at the pump, limiting the effectiveness of maritime policy changes. A late-July poll indicated that 46% of respondents believed gas prices would influence their voting decisions.

### Winners, Losers & Uncertainty While the intention is to provide relief to consumers, the limited historical impact suggests that neither consumers nor major energy companies like ExxonMobil ($XOM+WL) and Chevron ($CVX+WL) may see significant direct benefits or drawbacks from this specific policy action in terms of immediate price fluctuations. The primary purpose of the Jones Act is to support the U.S. maritime industry and national security.

### Risk Watch — Legal/Timeline The current 60-day Jones Act exemption, enacted in March, is scheduled to expire on August 16, 2026. The White House is evaluating an extension amidst ongoing scrutiny of oil company profits, with investigations into alleged price gouging initiated by the Department of Justice.